Following a January rally, markets slumped in February after new reports signaled stubborn strength in the U.S. economy and job market. Investors hoping to see slower, smaller interest rate hikes had their hopes dashed when Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that additional tightening was likely necessary. Uncertainty deepened, even as the impacts of rate hikes began gathering like clouds over the economy, notably in construction, commercial real estate, and by early March, banking. We’ll look at the Fed’s tightrope act followed by a brief review of February markets.

The first quarter of 2021 fueled hopes for a strong 2021 market recovery. The Dow finished up 7.8%, the S&P gained 5.8%, and the Nasdaq added 2.8% for the quarter. But we also saw signs of desperation: wild trading in the equities market, spurred on by Reddit and Robinhood. And we witnessed the debacle of Archego Capital Management, a family-owned firm that used risky “total return swaps” to massively leverage investors’ money. International banks took a huge hit as the bet unraveled. “I guess the smart money isn’t that much different than the Reddit traders,” posted one commenter in the Wall Street Journal (April 6, 2021). You might be asking, is this what recovery looks like?

Despite more than 108,000 US deaths from Covid-19 and deep job losses caused by the economic shutdown to prevent even more fatalities, US stock prices are hovering within 8% of their all-time peaks reached earlier this year. How does this square with the bleak news of the past month? We share our thoughts on a turbulent period of social unrest and economic uncertainty following a brief market summary.

The surging popularity of index funds—and the corresponding exodus from actively managed funds—is a worrisome trend for Wall Street. And so the bankers and brokers and analysts have responded with dire predictions. The warning goes like this: as use of passively managed index investing grows, market prices will become distorted as fewer shares are traded and “price discovery” becomes more difficult. That’s bad news for markets and investors too. Should you be concerned? Let’s look at the evidence after reviewing Q1 quarterly returns.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are preparing to open for business as usual on Wednesday following an extraordinary storm that crippled many parts of Manhattan and prompted widespread power failures.

Due to Hurricane Sandy, the NYSE was closed Monday, October 29, 2012. The NYSE and other US stock and bond markets will remain closed Tuesday, October 30.