The economy seemed to be moving in opposite directions in July. While economists were debating whether we had entered a recession, employers were filling jobs at a blistering pace. By the end of the month, with job growth more than double the forecasts, investors put recession fears on hold to worry anew about inflation. “Markets are a very complicated Impressionist painting,” Pimco CEO Emmanuel Roman said in a Financial Times interview (15-July). “Different pieces contribute to the story.” Only, this story isn’t following any previous script.  

Markets tumbled and then ended June 2022 with a second consecutive quarterly loss. There was negative news on every front: surging inflation, hawkish central banks, rising interest rates, record-low U.S. consumer confidence and slowing economic growth. Little wonder that performance was slammed across the board. Most stock indices logged double-digit Q2 declines, while bond losses varied depending on sector and maturity.

It’s been a while, but bears are on the prowl again, showing up with increasing frequency in financial news. Through mid-May, the S&P 500 index was down for seven consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak since the dot-com bubble burst two decades ago. Stocks briefly descended into dreaded bear market territory, but strong gains in the week ending 27-May created some breathing room. The S&P 500 Index finished May with relatively flat returns. Still, anxiety was palpable as investors awaited the next inflation report.

Stocks saw a sharp pullback in May as the Federal Reserve made it clear that it would aggressively fight inflation by approving the biggest interest rate increase since 2000. The Fed plans to shrink its massive bond holdings, and signaled that it will work to cool the economy and tamp down the fastest rise in prices seen since the early 1980s.

The first quarter of 2022 whiplashed investors, with each day bringing a raft of bad news to process. War erupted, inflation soared, bonds tanked, and supply chains were further stressed as rising oil and gas prices smashed into economic recovery. Extreme volatility was the norm: Occidental Petroleum soared 95% in the quarter, while Meta Platforms, Facebook’s parent company, racked up the biggest single-day loss in history for a US company ($232 billion). If you’re feeling unsettled about the markets, you’re not alone.

In early 2022, the economic outlook appeared to be improving despite ongoing challenges. While Covid-19 and its variants proved impossible to eradicate, new strains appeared to be less deadly. Job creation and unemployment data were encouraging. Inflation topped the list of concerns for investors as prices continued to rise amid mismatched supply and demand. But everything changed on February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine, layering an urgent humanitarian and geopolitical crisis on top of a fragile world economy.

Stocks tumbled in January, posting their largest monthly loss since the beginning of the pandemic. Investors were spooked by unabated inflation, ongoing supply chain issues and semiconductor shortages, and the buildup of Russian military forces around Ukraine. Investors felt threatened on many levels, and the markets reflected that.

The year 2021 was marked by uncertainty on many fronts. It began with a shocking attempt to overturn an American election, televised live from the nation’s Capitol building. As a new administration entered the White House, investors refocused on the uncertainties of a recovering economy and a COVID-19 pandemic that refused to be quelled. Throughout the year, optimism was often followed by setbacks. Periods of volatility were sparked by new COVID variants, rising inflation, China’s real estate market, soaring government debt, and crowd-sourced investing frenzies. Still, investors who stayed the course benefited from recovery and expansion as the economy gained strength.

Investors had plenty to stew over in November. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled he would tighten the spigot of easy money pouring into the economy. As for “transitory” inflation, maybe it’s not so transitory after all. Meanwhile, the virus first known as Covid-19 just keeps doing what viruses do, mutating in cunning new ways. Suddenly it feels as though we’re about to step backwards after nearly two years of progress. Here we consider the factors behind rising bearish sentiment and offer advice on how to stay calm during turbulent times.

October was a great month for equities. But you might have missed that while frowning at the gas pump, or expressing dismay at grocery prices or restaurant menu pricing. Inflation is on the rise, and that could spell trouble for a recovering economy.